A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
